Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Mar 17, 2018 - 4:01 PM

Valid until

Mar 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Easterly flow may deliver up to 5 mm of rain/snow on Sunday which is not expected to change the hazard. Low danger does not mean no danger. Stubborn old wind slabs, large cornices and the daily cycle of loose wet avalanches demand our respect.

Regular season
Saturday - March 17, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - March 18, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - March 19, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Isolated wind slabs on high north aspects may overlie weak layers of surface hoar. Loose wet avalanche conditions increase with daytime warming at lower elevations and on south aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful around wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes, or if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity on Friday was limited to snowballing on solar aspects.

On Thursday small loose avalanches were reported on steep features as the new snow ran on a crust. A few small skier triggered wind slabs were also reported from east facing alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A mix of light rain and wet flurries brought about 7 cm of new snow to the region on Wednesday. Where it arrived as snow, this precipitation buried a moist crust on solar aspects and a new layer of surface hoar on sheltered north aspects.

Snow that fell March 8th and 9th was redistributed by predominantly west and southwest wind, forming wind slabs at high elevations. On north aspects these older slabs may be sitting on a layer of surface hoar about 25-40 cm below the surface.

A mix of weak layers exists 50-100 cm below the surface, including small surface hoar on shady aspects and a crust on solar aspects. These layers are expected to have gained strength from recent cycles of warming and cooling. Like other deeper weak layers that formed in January and December, they are considered dormant at this time. These deeper layers include several surface hoar and facet layers 1 to 2 m below the surface and a crust/ facet interface near the base of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Sunday looks a bit unsettled with isolated alpine rain showers/flurries. The weather pattern is pretty benign as we enter the work week with scattered cloud cover, seasonal freezing levels and no significant precipitation expected.

SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning at 800 m rising to 1800 m throughout the day, light variable wind, 1 to 5 mm of precipitation possible.

MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning at 500 m, rising to 1600 m throughout the day, light west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning at 500 m, rising to 1700 m throughout the day, light west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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