Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Mar 6, 2018 - 3:59 PM

Valid until

Mar 7, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Avalanches are most likely on slopes getting hit by direct sunlight, although triggering persistent slab avalanches remains a concern on all aspects.

Regular season
Tuesday - March 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - March 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - March 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A few weak layers exist 50-100 cm below the surface and include surface hoar on north-facing terrain and sun crusts on south-facing terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Be cautious on convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm snow from the past week may still be reactive to human triggers, especially in areas like the Rossland area that received up to 80 cm of snow. The sun could make the storm slabs more reactive.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Approach steep lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, planar, south facing slopes.

Avalanche Summary

Activity on Monday was limited to dry loose sluffing in steep terrain. On Sunday, a skier triggered a large avalanche on a north treeline slope in the Rossland area that failed on a surface hoar layer 80 cm below the surface. Skiers in the Rossland area also experience whumpfing and ski cut a size 1 wind slab on a east aspect at 1700 m. Elsewhere in the region, a natural wind slab was observed on a northwest aspect at 2150 m and explosive control produced numerous size 2 storm slabs on south aspects.

The main concern on Wednesday will be persistent slabs and storm slabs becoming reactive on slopes getting hit by direct sunlight.

Snowpack Summary

Isolated flurries have delivered sporadic and localized accumulations of new snow. Snowfall amounts from the past week are 40-60 cm with the exception of the Rossland area which received 80-100 cm.

A mix of interfaces 50-100 cm below the surface will potentially remain reactive to human triggering and have given sudden results in recent snowpack tests. This includes small surface hoar on polar aspects and a sun crust on solar aspects.

Two deeper weak layers that formed in January and December are gradually gaining strength. Several surface hoar and facet layers are buried 1 to 2 m below the surface and there is a crust/ facet interface near the base of the snowpack. No avalanches have been reported on these layers for a few weeks and they are thought to have gone dormant at this time.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and clouds, moderate west wind, freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries increasing throughout the day with 5-10 cm of snow by the afternoon, moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

FRIDAY: Another 5-10 cm of snow then clearing in the afternoon with freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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