Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Feb 24, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Feb 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Storm slabs have formed with recent snowfall. The snow fell with strong southerly winds, so expect thicker slabs in lee features. Watch for avalanche activity and signs of locally unstable snow, such as whumpfing and shooting cracks.

Regular season
Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 25, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - February 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New storm slabs have formed, which may not bond well to underlying surfaces. Stiff slabs from last week still exist, which are about 30-50 cm deep and sit on variable weak surfaces. Old and new slabs have been reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday, storm slabs were triggered by skiers and explosives around treeline and alpine elevations, 10 to 25 cm deep. Otherwise, natural and skier-triggered sluffing was experience in steep terrain.

Expect new snowfall to not bond well to underlying snow surfaces and hence be reactive to skier traffic.

Snowpack Summary

Around 5 to 10 cm of storm snow on Friday night and another 5 to 10 cm is expected Sunday. The snow fell with strong southerly winds, producing slabs on all aspects with deeper deposits in lee features. This snow fell on variable surfaces, including wind-affected, weak surface hoar, and weak faceted snow. The new snow will likely not bond well to these surfaces and is expected to be reactive to both natural and human triggers. Beneath the new snow, variable surface hoar, faceted snow, and crusts exists around 30 to 50 cm deep, which have been reactive to human traffic.

Deeper in the snowpack, weak layers that formed in January and December are gradually gaining strength. The layers include several surface hoar and facet layers buried 1-2 m below the surface and a crust/ facet interface near the base of the snowpack. No avalanches have been reported on these layers for the past two weeks and snowpack tests are showing improved bonding. Despite these signs, avalanche professionals are still treating these layers with respect and being cautious around shallow start zones and in big avalanche paths.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Cloudy with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong westerly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 800 m.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, light northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 800 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level 800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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