Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Dec 19, 2017 - 5:09 PM

Valid until

Dec 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

A major storm will bring impressive snow totals to the Kootenay region. It's best to avoid all avalanche terrain until the snowpack has time to settle out.

Regular season
Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - December 22, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Conditions are expected to remain touchy with the new snow sitting on a weak surface hoar layer in many locations. Heavy snowfall on Tuesday into Wednesday will only make it worse.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of runout zones.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with no consequence.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, ski cutting produced several storm slab avalanches to Size 1.5 on a wide variety of aspects and elevations.

On Monday, numerous storm slabs up to Size 2 were reported in the Nelson area: They were either easily triggered by skiers or ran naturally.

Also on Monday, several classic signs of instability (whumphing, shooting cracks, easy sudden results in snowpack tests) were reported near Nelson. See here for the great MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

The Nelson area and points farther south have now seen 40-60 cm of new snow since Sunday night, with moderate to strong winds. Deep snow drifts have been reported and we also received word that the upper snow pack is 'upside down' (heavier, denser snow on top of lighter snow).

All this new snow has fallen on a variety of old snow surfaces, depending on aspect and elevation.

On solar aspects a thin melt-freeze crust has been buried. On northerly aspects, feathery, surface hoar crystals (10-60 mm in length) have been buried below treeline as well as protected areas at treeline. In the alpine the old surface consisted of sugary snow (facets) and hard, wind scoured snow.

Below the crust layer the lower snowpack is moist and well settled.

Weather Forecast

After Tuesday's storm it will clear up and we'll have dry weather with cool temperatures for the foreseeable future.

WEDNESDAY: Snow ending in the morning. Ridge wind moderate northerly. Freezing level at the surface, alpine high temperatures of -5.

THURSDAY: Clouds and isolated flurries. Ridge wind moderate from the north west. Temperature near -6. Freezing level at the surface.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridge wind moderate from the north east. Temperature near -6. Freezing level at the surface.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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