Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Nov 28, 2017 - 3:39 PM

Valid until

Nov 29, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

The new snow will take time to settle and bond to a prominent crust. Dial back your terrain choices until conditions stabilize. Due to limited data it is CRITICAL to supplement this information with your own observations.

Regular season
Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - November 29, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - November 30, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow on Tuesday into Wednesday will sit on a 2 cm thick melt-freeze crust, which will likely act as a good sliding layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday we had reports of a natural Size 2 avalanche near Kootenay Pass. See here for the MIN report, along with some good snowpack information.

We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 2-10 cm of snow fell Sunday overnight into Monday, as temperatures dropped by 5-10 degrees (and back to more seasonal values). Ridge top winds were moderate from the west and likely formed wind slabs on lee (easterly) slopes.

This new snow fell on a 2 cm thick melt-feeze crust (the November 27th crust), which could become a good sliding layer during Tuesday's storm.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 100-170cm in the alpine, 50-100cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

Last week's heavy rain to the mountaintops really shrunk the snowpack and has transitioned much of the snowpack from dry to moist snow.

We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

We're looking at a brief lull in the active weather pattern on Wednesday, before the next system arrives on Thursday with modest amounts of snow.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing throughout the day. Moderate westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

THURSDAY: Snow (10-15 cm). Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks during the day and isolated flurries. Moderate south west ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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