Date issued

Feb 5, 2018 - 3:11 PM

Valid until

Feb 6, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jeremy.mackenzie

Avoid avalanche terrain. A large-scale avalanche cycle is on-going.

Regular season
Monday - February 5, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - February 6, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are failing on all aspects in the Alpine and at Treeline producing large to very large avalanches. Be aware of exposure to run-out zones. In many cases these avalanches are stepping down to the deeper buried weak layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Several buried weak layers of concern exist down between 50 and 150cm. Loose dry slides or wind slabs initiated in the upper snowpack are often stepping down to these weak layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Avalanche Problem 3: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Ice climbers, avoid gullies. Expect sluffing in steeper terrain. Some sluffs are triggering slabs on the underlying slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
  • Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.

Avalanche Summary

A large-scale natural avalanche cycle occurred in the past 24hrs on all aspects in the Alpine up to size 3.5. A few slabs up to size 2.0 also initiated at Treeline. Smaller loose dry avalanches were widespread across all Treeline and Alpine terrain today. Explosives control work today on EEOR produced size 2.0 avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Another 15cm of new snow brings recent storm snow totals to between 50 and 60cm. This has fallen with relatively little wind effect in the southern part of the forecast area, but more wind effect is evident up north. In the Alpine fresh wind slabs have formed on all aspects. A large natural avalanche cycle occurred over the last 24hrs associated with these fresh wind slabs. In some cases, avalanches stepped down to deeper weak layers such as the Jan 6 surface hoar and the Dec 15 surface hoar/sun crust/facet layer, producing large to very large avalanches. Forecasters continue to monitor multiple buried weak layers between 50 and 150cm down into the snowpack. In addition, the November crusts layers have recently become active in a few isolated avalanches in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridge-top winds will be from the west at 25 km/h and a high of -13 C. Another storm will bring up to 25cm of new snow late Wednesday and into Thursday.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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