Date issued

Feb 2, 2018 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Feb 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

matt.mueller

More avalanche activity and forecasted snow mean the hazard will rise- possibly quickly and dramatically. Watch conditions carefully and don't venture into big terrain.

Regular season
Saturday - February 3, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 4, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 5, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are extensive in the alpine down to tree line. There are failures within the slabs as well that are reactive.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

variable test results are keeping this layer on the radar. It is worth digging and testing as you approach treeline. Especially if we get more snow than expected.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
  • Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Avalanche Summary

Several new slabs were seen in the northern reaches of our region today. It's hard to guess the age as they were blown in and reloaded quickly. They were all in the alpine and about sz2. While officially out of our forecast region, but still relevant, Cascade Falls in Banff was reported to have released today. Thinner areas appear to be touchier at the moment.

Snowpack Summary

Not a lot of snow last night. Some stations had a cm or 2, but nothing significant. What was interesting today was seeing, and feeling the wind arrive. Especially in the northern portion of the region. There are definitely new wind slabs in the alpine & treeline areas on N-S aspects. The first question to ask now is: How will the load shift and will this change initiate a natural cycle? We suspect it will in the alpine, but treeline will likely remain in the human triggering range only.

Weather Forecast

A bit of a conflicting forecast right now (we look at 3 everyday). Winds will be anywhere from 45-100km/hr. Given today's experience we'd lean more towards the 70km/hr range at 2500m. Flurries will only bring a few more centimeters tonight and another 6-20 tomorrow. Alpine temperatures will be around -10 for the high.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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