Date issued

Jan 28, 2018 - 4:12 PM

Valid until

Jan 29, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

michael.olsthoorn

More snow on the way associated with strong winds for the next couple of days will change the hazard quickly. Minimize your exposure.

Regular season
Sunday - January 28, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 29, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

These are multiple slabs that are laminated together. Stepping down to deeper instabilities is likely.  More snow and wind on its way to possibly tip the odds for greater avalanche activity.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

As snow load increases, the "triggerability" of this layer will go up.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2 was observed.

Snowpack Summary

Lost happening at different elevations. 

At tree line (below 2250m) and below tree line, there is the Jan 6 surface hoar layer that is quite visible in the snowpack. Today, our test results  on this layer were in the hard range but we expect that to vary depending on the valley.  The one thing that is consistent with this layer is that the test results always show it to be sudden planar (clean sheer and pops). Something to keep an eye out as well with the snow arriving on Monday.

Above 2250m, the Jan 6 surface hoar layer is more or less is gone.  However the Dec 15 surface hoar layer is down about 80cm.  And here is where it gets interesting.  We have seen some larger avalanches go on this layer and then quiet down. On Monday Jan 29, the forecast is for about 20cm with 55 km/h winds.  That means more wind slabs and more load on this layer which is likely to tip the odds for more avalanche activity.

Weather Forecast

Weather forecast is indicating 17cm of snowfall for Monday with 55 km/h SW winds.  Temperature in the alpine is to be -4c and freezing level near 1800m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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