Date issued

Jan 18, 2018 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Jan 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mike.koppang

New snow and strong winds are initiating an avalanche cycle in the alpine.  The current snowpack is complex so choose conservative terrain as the snowpack settles. 

Regular season
Friday - January 19, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 20, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds and warm temps have combined to build widespread windslabs in the alpine & open treeline areas.  These slabs are overlying a melt freeze crust on solar aspects and surface hoar at treeline and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Up to treeline being found especially in sheltered areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Problem 3: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The new load may begin to make the December 15th interface more reactive.  This layer has turned into a 5-10cm thick facet layer and isolated surface hoar at treeline elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid unsupported slopes.
  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Summary

Winds and new snow was triggering a few slabs out of lee and cross-loaded features up to sz 2. We suspect there was more slabs out but conditions were obscured throughout the day and visibility was limited.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of new snow fell over the past 24hrs with moderate westerly winds at treeline and suspected higher winds in the alpine. This new snow is also now burying the previous windslabs that developed last week as well as a new layer of surface hoar that was being found up to treeline. Two additional layers in the upper snowpack are still producing concerns. The Jan 6th down 40cm (moderate results) and the Dec 15th down 60-80cm (producing hard results). Despite a lack of recent activity on these interfaces they are still in our mind and we are treating she;tered treeline areas cautiously. Watch for new windslabs and storm slabs building along N and E aspects at treeline and above.

Weather Forecast

A few more cm's of snow is likely to fall overnight with continued moderate to strong winds out of the SW.  On Friday we are expecting snowfalls to diminsh and winds to calm down.  Freezing levels are foreast to drop back to 1500m with daytime highs around -11C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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