Date issued

Jan 12, 2018 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Jan 13, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

matt.mueller

Skiing is still good in sheltered areas but expect wind slab formation to increase as time goes on and winds pick up. Treeline will become a likely place for avalanches as the Jan 6th loads.

Regular season
Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - January 14, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - January 15, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

These start right at the treeline/alpine border. In some sheltered areas, there is still a buried windslab that is worth some consideration.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

This shows up as either surface hoar or facets. It has been inconsistent with test results, but we're working under the assumption that it could be triggered in the right (or wrong?) terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.

Avalanche Problem 3: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Running far and fast up to sz 2. From steep unskiable areas. Ice climbers be aware. Expect spindrift on lee slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

The widespread cycle involving the storm snow has continued. There was numerous loose dry out of all aspects in the alpine. Including a low density slab that was witnessed today (E asp, 2500m out of steep unsupported terrain). We also had a report of small pockets of the Jan 6th surface hoar waking up. These were in the Warspite drainage and at treeline. They happened early yesterday and were up to sz2.

Snowpack Summary

The winds were noticeable today with lots of snow transport at summit elevations. This increase in winds has created fresh windslabs on Northeast to South aspects in the alpine. At treeline, the Jan 6th & Dec 15th layers start to become apparent, but still unreactive due to the lack of snow load and a slab. The Dec 6th becomes more apparent the lower you go. But again, the lack of a slab is preventing an avalanche problem. Today's notable observation was multiple stability tests with repeatable results below the Nov 27 crust(down 85cm). All tests failed with moderate loads. The technical details are: ECTP21 & CTM(19) sudden collapse. In a nutshell, this is telling us that those layers are breaking down and we should keep them in mind when assessing the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries tomorrow. Alpine highs of -3.  Ridge wind west 40 km/h.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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