Date issued

Jan 11, 2018 - 3:39 PM

Valid until

Jan 12, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mike.koppang

The new snow is freshened up the region but the persistent surface hoar layers are taking more load and getting more reactive.  When the winds come...pull back!

Regular season
Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Look for these as you transition to alpine terrain and/or as you approach ridge tops.  As winds increase they will become more widespread. 

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A surface hoar and facet layer down 50-70cm is beginning to wake up with the recent new snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Problem 3: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Running far and fast up to sz 2.  From steep unskiable areas.  Ice climbers be aware

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

A few new slabs within the recent storm snow up to sz 2.  There were also a few loose dry up to sz 2.  The SE face of Smuts also ran up to sz 2 from 2800m. 

Snowpack Summary

Another 13cm overnight brings our recent storm snow up to 30-40cm over the past 2 days.  This new snow has yet to see much wind affect but it is continuing to bury two key layers.  One the Dec interface down 70cm which is facets or surface hoar (below 2300m) and the Jan 6th Surface down 30 which is surface haor below 2300m or a sun crust on steep solar aspects up to 2600m.  As the snow settles and strengthens over these layers they will become more reactive.  Whumpfing and settlements were being observed on thursday so treat that as a heads up.  Otherwise, wind slabs are still being observered in alpine areas on all aspects but as of yet they don't extend far downslope.  As the winds increase, expect all of these problems to become more reactive at treeline and in the alpine.

Weather Forecast

Winds will slowly increase here out of the NW into the moderate range over the next 24hrs.  Temperatures will increase to a more seasonal level on friday and no new snow is forecast. 

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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