Date issued

Dec 29, 2017 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Dec 30, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mike.koppang

Our weak snowpack just had 20-30cm of snow put on top of it and another 10 is forecast for tonight.  Time to rein yourself in and allow the snowpack to settle to this new load.

Regular season
Saturday - December 30, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - December 31, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - January 1, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New storm slabs are building in Alpine terrain with the northern winds.  These slabs are overlying weak facets and windslabs in some areas.  Use caution as you transition into more alpine terrain.  Avoid steep and unsupported terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recently buried wind slabs are present in the Alpine on all aspects, and in isolated spots at Treeline. Steep and unsupported terrain are areas where triggering is more likely.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopes
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 3: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Occurring in steeper terrain but running into skiable lines. Ice climbers should be aware of this problem.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Avalanche Summary

A few slabs were observed failing with the recent snow on steeper unsupported terrain up to sz 1.5. These mainly occurred on southerly aspects. Of note some of the loose dry avalanches of late have gone very far and are sluffing fast entraining lots of snow as they travel down the slope. Ice climbers should pay particular attention.

Snowpack Summary

21cm storm snow overnight at Burstall with 30cm overnight at Aster lake. Storm snow tapers to 15cm at lower elevations. This new snow fell with light winds out of the north and as a result we are seeing some reverse loading in a few areas in the Alpine. Watch for new windslabs and storm slabs 20-30cm deep in alpine areas and at treeline in steeper terrain. These slabs will be slow to settle out with the cooler temps. Down 40-50cm in the snowpack is the December 15th surface hoar layer being found up to 2250m. A lack of a cohesive slab overlying this layer has prevented it being a problem but we can expect it to develop over the next few days as the snow settles. Pay attention where this layer is and isnt as you travel.

Weather Forecast

Cold temps are expected to continue for a few more days until conditions begin to warm up late in the day on Sunday. Overnight on Friday we can expect another 5-10cm of snow to fall with winds pushing into the moderate range out of the north before they calm down during the day on Saturday. 

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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