Date issued

Nov 21, 2017 - 3:15 PM

Valid until

Nov 22, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

matt.mueller

Rising temps, rapid loading and high winds are a recipe for a natural avalanche cycle. If the forecast holds true, limit your exposure to avalanche terrain.

Regular season
Tuesday - November 21, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - November 22, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - November 23, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Intense transport has continued to build the wind slabs. These slabs are reactive on the Oct 31 crust as well as older snow interfaces. Re-loading should be a concern. Expect to come upon these slabs suddenly as you approach upper treeline.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new today. The extent of the last cycle was quite broad. Many paths have recently avalanched up to sz 2.5. These have all gone surprisingly far.

Snowpack Summary

The recent snowfall has settled significantly in the last 24hrs. At treeline there is 40cm of storm snow, followed by a denser windslab. The Halloween crust is down 80cm at treeline and in stability tests, it's failing just below. Above treeline, it's important to note the ongoing wind loading and how it rapidly the snowpack changes in windy areas. Alpine areas have extensive wind slabs. The recent cycle has been failing on the Halloween crust, which appears to extend quite far into the alpine

Weather Forecast

Temperatures will increase as the next storm approaches. Overnight lows will be -4 and freezing levels will rise to 3000m by tomorrow. Snow and wind is expected with this latest front. 8cm tonight, 10cm tomorrow & 35cm on Thursday. Westerly winds will range from 45-70km/hr with gusts up to 80km/hr!

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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