Error message

Date issued

Nov 19, 2017 - 3:00 PM

Valid until

Nov 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jeremy.mackenzie

Windy and snowy conditions tonight will lead to natural avalanche activity on Monday. Human-triggering will increase to the "very likely" range. Cautious route selection is in order. An avalanche involvement occurred yesterday - see "Details" tab.

Regular season
Monday - November 20, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline
Tuesday - November 21, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline
Wednesday - November 22, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are found on lee and cross-loaded features. Further slab development will occur through the night due to an intense storm that is moving through.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.
  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was limited today. One naturally triggered size 1.5 slab avalanche occurred in the past 24hrs on a steep E aspect at 2500m. This slab was approximately 20m wide, 40 cm deep and ran 100m. In addition, rescue crews responded to a serious avalanche involvement yesterday on Mt Arethusa. A party of 3 triggered a size 2.0 slab avalanche in steep Alpine terrain on a S aspect. This slide partially buried one person and fully buried another as the group boot-packed up a gully. The fully buried subject was successfully extricated by his companions, but suffered numerous serious traumatic injuries. Check out KCPS Facebook for photos.

Snowpack Summary

A few flurries today has not added much to the snowpack yet, but there will likely be more accumulation through the night with strong to extreme SW winds. Intense winds are the dominate part of the story, as wind slabs are already widespread at Treeline and Alpine elevations, and these will continue to build over the next 72hrs. These slabs are found on lee and cross-loaded features and are particularly prevalent in gullies features and immediately below ridge-crests. The Halloween crust is buried 40 to 60cm and has shown signs of facetting. Recent snowpack tests show a failure immediately underneath the crust, that will be something to watch in the weeks to come.

Weather Forecast

A snowy and windy night on Sunday is expected. Monday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperature should reach a high of -8 °C with ridge-top winds near 25km/h from the West. Tuesday and Wednesday will be snowy with possible accumulations up to 25cm.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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