Date issued

Jan 22, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Valid until

Jan 23, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Prepared by

mark herbison

Several surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack are sensitive to human triggering. A small avalanche could initiate a deeper instability resulting in a large avalanche.

Avalanches from the Alpine have the potential to reach Valley Bottoms.

Regular season
Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - January 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong south winds combined with recent new snow has formed pockets of wind slab. This buries the Jan 16 surface hoar which is widespread and found down ~50cm. Slabs triggered over this weak layer could propagate far and trigger deeper layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in alpine lees. Recent snowfall mixed with wind loading has created storm slabs.
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The January 4th surface hoar is down 70cm and the Dec 15th layer is down 100cm. After a month under the snow, this surface hoar remains widespread and well-preserved. These layers should not be overlooked and could be sensitive in thin areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches size 2-3.5 yesterday. The size 3.5 dusted and spread small woody debris on the highway for a 100m section.

Avalanches originating in the Alpine have the potential to run into valley bottoms.

Snowpack Summary

17cm of snow overnight, ~50cm of storm snow sits atop the January 16 surface hoar layer which is settling quickly and reactive in tests. The December 15 surface hoar is down 100cm and is highly visible in profiles and still producing sudden planar results in tests. Strong south winds have built pockets of wind slab in the Alpine.

Weather Forecast

Today will be a lull between storms, with the next notable amount of snow coming in Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Today you can expect cloud and sunny breaks with periods of light snow. Freezing level to remain at valley bottom with and Alpine high of -8. Winds at ridge top will be 20-35km/hr from the southwest.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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