Date issued

Jan 14, 2018 - 8:02 AM

Valid until

Jan 15, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Prepared by

mark herbison

Human triggered avalanches are likely.

Expect avalanche activity to increase throughout the day as the warm temps and sun begin to affect the snowpack.

Regular season
Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - January 14, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 15, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A reactive slab continues to settle, warming temps in the next couple days will make it more touchy. The slab is poorly bonded in areas where the Jan 4 surface hoar is well preserved. If triggered avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

This interface has become reactive with the recent new loading and is most prevalent around treeline or sheltered areas the alpine. These avalanches are especially dangerous in terrain traps where debris can pile up.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Avalanche Summary

Several sz 1.5 - 2.5 avalanches and one sz 3.0 avalanche from steep, aggressive terrain along the highway corridor yesterday.

Consistent reports of whumphing and shooting cracks since the storm early last week.

Hard Sudden Planar (SP) results down ~60cm on the Jan 4 surface hoar (5mm) during stability tests yesterday.

Snowpack Summary

70cm of snow over the past week has settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down ~60cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The recent snow load has made these layers reactive with sudden planar results showing high propagation potential.

Weather Forecast

The valley cloud is expected to linger until midday, once above it you will be treated to mainly sunny skies. There will be a slight temperature inversion with the alpine reaching a high of +2 with 20 km/hr south east winds. This is the first day of a two day warming period. No snow in the forecast until Tuesday evening once temps drop.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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