Date issued

Jan 11, 2018 - 8:03 AM

Valid until

Jan 12, 2018 - 8:00 AM

Prepared by

percy woods

Continued elevated danger of skier and rider triggered avalanches today.  It is time for very conservative route selection.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

45cm of recent storm snow has settled into a slab. The Jan 4 surface hoar is down ~45cm and found to be up to 15mm in size. If triggered, avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL with potential for large avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The Dec 15th PWL is widespread around tree line and below tree line, buried ~100cm. Previous warm temps have slabbed up the upper snow pack. This interface is reactive with skier remote slides Wednesday and a skier buried in a terrain trap on Monday.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Several reports of skier triggered slides occurred yesterday. A size 2 slide at the top of Grizzly Shoulder, East aspect and 30 degree slope was 80m wide, 40cm deep and ran 80m down slope. A remote triggered size 1.5 slide at 1750m 1m deep, 25m wide and ran for 150m taking out part of the ski track. Several slides to size 2.5 in hwy corridor.

Snowpack Summary

We have three buried surface hoar layers two of which are touchy and sensitive to human triggering. Jan 4th surface hoar is down ~45cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar Persistent Weak Layer down ~100cm are ripe and ready to slide. Snowpack tests show propagation potential with sudden planar results on the Jan 4 and Dec15 layers.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and an alpine high of -10C today.  Scattered flurries with a slowly rising freezing level and warming trend into the weekend. Potential for another 10cm of snow by Saturday. This additional load and warming will keep the snowpack weak layers touchy.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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