Avalanche Forecast
Avalanche Bulletin - Glacier National Park
There is lots of uncertainty what's going to happen today as temperatures rise. Slab properties will change over the December 15th persistent weak layer, and a skier or rider could be the trigger needed to start a slab avalanche.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Dry
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
We may see a natural loose dry cycle on steep solar aspects today, with solar radiation and an inversion. The combination of a loose sluff, plus a skier or rider could be the load for a step-down slab avalanche to the Dec 15th persistent weak layer.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.
Avalanche Summary
There have been no significant avalanches observed or reported in the last few days in Glacier National Park, with many of the standard lines been skied. Our Neighbors have seen more avalanches of late, due to either more load and slab formation or a shallower snowpack resulting in poor bonding between layers. We may see a change today!
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack is quite a mixed bag of layering depending on Aspect and Elevation. The Dec 15th PWL (most prominent at TL) is the main layer on our radar, and we're still waiting for it to really produce a decent cycle. We've observed some failures of this layer "cracking" giving the snowpack a rippled effect, but still not failing as an avalanche.
Weather Forecast
The main story for today and into the near future is the temperature inversion. Steep solar aspects in the alpine will see the most effect, while valley bottoms will stay cold and continue to facet. The inversion is set to last until Friday, when a low-pressure system slides in from the Pacific, pushing out the high pressure.
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The December 15 surface hoar layer is widespread around treeline and buried 60cm. Cold temps have kept the slab from gaining cohesion, but today's warming trend may make it more reactive especially on steep unsupported terrain.