Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Mar 31, 2018 - 3:28 PM

Valid until

Apr 1, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

simonhorton

Stick to small supported terrain features and give the storm snow time to heal. Be extra suspect of wind-loaded slopes.

Regular season
Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - April 1, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - April 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Human-triggered storm slabs remain a concern on wind-affected features and on south aspects where they sit above buried sun crusts.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep planar south-facing slopes
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a natural size 2.5 storm slab avalanche was reported west of Valemount on a northwest aspect at 2400 m.

On Thursday, a few size 2 natural storm slab avalanches were reported on north and east aspects. A cornice fall triggered a large slab avalanche with a 100 cm crown on a north aspect at 2600 m. A skier also remotely triggered a size 1 wind slab on a southeast aspect at 1900 m.

These avalanches follow a widespread natural avalanche cycle that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday. Storm slabs in the size 2-3 range were reported on all aspects between 1700 and 2500 m. Southerly aspects were the most reactive with numerous large and very large (size 2.5-3.5) avalanches running on a recently buried sun crust.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20-30 cm of snow on Friday brings last week's total to 60-100 cm. Storm snow was accompanied with strong west wind, forming reactive slabs at higher elevations.

The storm snow sits on an interface buried in late-March that consist of crusts at low elevations and on south aspects, and surface hoar on shaded aspects at higher elevations.

Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators, but are generally considered dormant.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Flurries with 5-15 cm of new snow, light wind, freezing level up to 700 m, and alpine high temperatures near -8 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with light wind, freezing level up to 600 m, and alpine high temperatures near -10 C.

TUESDAY: Moslty cloudy with scattered flurried (2-4 cm of snow), moderate southwest wind, freezing level up to 1000 m, and alpine high temperatures near -6 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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