Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Mar 29, 2018 - 4:18 PM

Valid until

Mar 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and wind Thursday night and Friday will add to recent storm slabs that sit on a touchy crust/facet/surface hoar layer. Choose conservative terrain and be especially wary of wind-loaded areas and solar aspects.

Regular season
Thursday - March 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

All the new snow will take time to settle and stabilize. Storm slabs 60-100 cm thick have been especially touchy on southerly aspects where a crust has been buried by the recent storm snow as well as wind-loaded, high north aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded leeward and cross-loaded slopes

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3.5 was reported on Tuesday and Wednesday following the storm on Tuesday. Storm slabs from 50 to 100 cm deep were reported on all aspects between 1700-2500 m.

Southerly aspects were the most reactive with numerous large and very large (size 2.5 - 3.5) avalanches running on a recently buried crust.

While the natural cycle has tapered off, human triggered avalanches remain likely at treeline and above where the touchy late-March crust/surface hoar layer exists.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 60 to 100 cm of recent storm snow has fallen with moderate to strong winds from the south / west.

The storm snow sits on a variety of old snow surfaces buried late-March that consist of: sun crusts at lower elevations and on south aspects, and older storm snow or wind slabs up high. Surface hoar layers have been reported on shaded aspects at higher elevations.

Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators but are generally considered dormant.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 10-15 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level valley bottom.

FRIDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, northwest. Alpine temperature near -10. Freezing level valley bottom.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, west. Alpine temperature near -8. Freezing level 800 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-4 cm. Ridge wind light, southwest. Alpine temperature near -8. Freezing level 700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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