Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Mar 20, 2018 - 5:01 PM

Valid until

Mar 21, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Your hunt for sheltered snow is likely to lead you to the same areas where storm slabs are a concern. Stick to supported slopes to limit your exposure.

Regular season
Tuesday - March 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 21, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 22, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Isolated pockets of surface hoar on sheltered, high north aspects have led to prolonged reactivity of storm slabs about 25 cm deep. Isolated wind slabs and mature cornices are other hazards to manage at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Use extra caution in the afternoon if the snow becomes moist or wet.
  • Be cautious around steep or convex slopes where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Monday included another ski cut storm slab (size 1) on a high north aspect in the southern part of the region.

Sunday's reports included two small skier-triggered storm slabs that released on a north aspect in the alpine. Their crown fractures were 25 cm deep.

Last Wednesday there were reports of several natural, loose, wet avalanches up to size 1.5 on south aspects at all elevations, as well as a skier triggered wind slab (size 1) on a northeast aspect at 2300 m.

Snowpack Summary

Recent light snowfalls have been followed by warm daytime temperatures and glimpses of sun, setting up a couple of thin storm snow layers over temperature and sun crusts at lower elevations and on south aspects. On shaded aspects at higher elevations, these snowfalls have buried and preserved a couple of surface hoar layers now found up to 25 cm deep. The deepest of these surface hoar layers has been the failure plane in several recent slab avalanches.

New snow amounts taper with elevation and below 1800 m, minimal accumulations have buried a supportive crust on all aspects. This crust will likely break down with daytime warming, becoming moist in the afternoon.

Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, a large cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southeast winds, increasing overnight. Freezing level to 1600 metres with alpine high temperatures around -4.

Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow, increasing overnight. Strong southeast winds. Freezing level to 2000 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures around -6.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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