Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Mar 15, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Mar 16, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Pockets of lingering wind slabs can still be found on high northerly aspects where the snow has remained dry and cold.

Regular season
Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - March 17, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - March 18, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Pockets of reactive wind slab can still be found in leeward areas at upper elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll overs
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices, which may become weak with daytime heating.

Avalanche Summary

Wednesday there were reports of several natural, loose, wet avalanches up to size 1.5 on south aspects at all elevations, as well as a skier triggered wind slab (size 1) on a northeast aspect at 2300 m.

On Tuesday there were two size 1.5 skier triggered wind slab avalanches reported on north and northwest aspects in the alpine. Reports from the past several days primarily included wet loose avalanches to size 2 in steeper terrain on sunny aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The main story has been the sun's effect on south and west facing slopes over the past several days. Daytime heating has resulted in moist or wet snow on sunny aspects and then freezing to form a crust overnight. High elevation northerly aspects still hold dry snow. Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, a cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 2-8 cm. Ridge wind light, north. Alpine Temperature near -5. Freezing level 1000 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation 2-4 cm. Ridge wind light, southwest. Alpine Temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Ridge wind light, northeast. Alpine Temperature near -4. Freezing level 1500 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Ridge wind light, northwest. Alpine Temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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