Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Mar 1, 2018 - 4:30 PM

Valid until

Mar 2, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Storm slabs on steep slopes, wind slabs on lee slopes and a persistent slab that seems to be "waking up". Plenty to manage but also lots of good snow to ride!

Regular season
Friday - March 2, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - March 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind created slabs on lee slopes in wind exposed areas. Steep slopes and convex rolls in wind sheltered areas are a concern; still, wind protected areas are your best bet for good riding.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution on steeper open slopes and convex rolls in wind sheltered areas.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Buried weak layers exist within the snowpack and may be reactive to large triggers such as a cornice fall. Human triggering may also be possible in shallow or thin, rocky, unsupported terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Carefully assess and consider avoiding southerly facing slopes
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger persistent slabs.
  • Watch convoluted terrain with variable snowpack depth and multiple trigger points.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has consisted of mainly loose dry in the size 1-1.5 range but also some wind slabs to size 2 in alpine terrain. These were either naturally occurring or intentionally triggered. Deep persistent avalanche activity has become less frequent over the past week.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of recent storm snow is being redistributed into slabs in wind-exposed terrain. Below this is a layer buried mid-February that presents as a sun crust on solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on sheltered slopes. This layer looks most concerning on on solar aspects where it's associated with with small facets or surface hoar above.

There are several deeper layers in the mid-pack that have shown signs of improving but remain on the radar as a low probability to trigger, yet high consequence avalanche if triggered. We are talking about surface hoar buried back in December and January. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust combined with loose sugary snow. These layers may "wake-up" with strong inputs such as sustained warming, sustained snowfall, large triggers (e.g. cornice fall, smaller avalanches coming down from above); human triggering is also possible in shallow snowpack areas with variable snow depth and convoluted terrain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / Light southeast wind / Alpine temperature -7 / Freezing level 900m

SATURDAY:  Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light east wind / Alpine temperature -10

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northeast wind / Alpine temperature -12

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Forecasts in your Inbox

Avalanche Canada has switched to an RSS feed for its daily forecasts. This is a much more flexible method that allows automatic delivery to your email inbox, or to an RSS reader of your choice.

What are RSS feeds?

RSS (Really Simple Syndication) is a popular standardized file format allowing up-to-date delivery of web-based content. RSS feeds enable you to receive content updates from websites, delivered to your email through an RSS aggregator (such as blogtrottr.com) or viewed through applications called RSS readers (such as feedly.com).

Set up an RSS feed for your email:

Select a RSS aggregator

  1. Cariboos URL: http://www.avalanche.ca/api/forecasts/cariboos.rss
  2. Copy the url and paste it into the appropriate field of your RSS aggregator.
  3. Fill in your email address.
  4. Voila! Watch the Avalanche Canada forecast roll into your inbox.

Forecast Disclaimer

Avalanche Canada's Public Avalanche Bulletin, and other information and services provided by Avalanche Canada, are intended for personal and recreational purposes only.

**THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND IN NO EVENT SHALL THE PROVIDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, DAMAGES RESULTING FROM DISCOMFORT, INJURY, OR DEATH, CLAIMS BY THIRD PARTIES OR FOR OTHER SIMILAR COSTS, OR ANY SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THE INFORMATION.**

The user acknowledges that it is impossible to accurately predict natural events such as avalanches in every instance, and uses the data in this bulletin with this always foremost in mind. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed or warranted in any way and the Providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use, or inability to use the data.