Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
Expect new snow and strong winds to form wind slabs and grow cornices. Cracking around skis and sleds are signs that the new snow is bonding poorly to the old surface. Avoid wind loaded areas with pillowy or chalky looking snow.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.
Avalanche Summary
Although not much avalanche activity has been reported, this may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. In the neighbouring North Columbia region, fairly widespread skier-triggered wind slab activity in the size 1-1.5 range was reported on Saturday. With Sunday's pulse of snowfall, I expect wind slab activity to increase in size and frequency.
Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity has become less frequent over the past week, light triggers in shallow rocky areas, as well as large triggers such as a cornice collapse or step down from a wind slab release, still have the potential to result in large destructive avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
About 15-30 cm of new snow now covers old surfaces which include of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects and surface hoar on shaded, wind-sheltered slopes. I suspect strong winds will have redistributed much of the new snow into fresh wind slabs in exposed terrain.
25-60cm below the surface lies another interface, with similar character and distribution that was buried mid-February. This layer has been reactive in recent snowpack tests and is definitely worth keeping an eye on as the overlying slab gains thickness and cohesion.
Within the mid and lower snowpack are several persistent weak layers that are slowly beginning to show signs of improving but still remain suspect.
Two surface hoar/ crust layers buried in January are now 100-150 cm below the snow surface. At least one of these layers can be found on all aspects and elevations.
Deeper in the snowpack (150 - 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer buried in December that is most prevalent at treeline elevations and below.
Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo layer buried in late November.
Weather Forecast
Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate to strong westerly winds / Alpine temperature of -16
Tuesday: Light flurries / Moderate to strong westerly winds / Alpine temperature of -17
Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light and variable winds / Alpine temperature of -16
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New snow and strong winds will create wind slabs in many areas in the alpine as well as open areas at lower elevations. If triggered wind slabs may "step down" to deeper layers including a weak interface buried mid-February.