Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
Conditions remain primed for human-triggered avalanches. Give the snowpack time to settle before pushing into more aggressive terrain: Simple terrain is recommended for now.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several weak layers are buried in the snowpack, creating very large avalanches when triggered.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
- Make conservative terrain choices, remembering that avalanches may be surprisingly large.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday we received preliminary reports of an avalanche involvement in the north Columbia region near Clemina creek. The avalanche ran on a north facing aspect near 1900m.
A natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred on Monday with heavy snow and temperatures up to +2 Celsius in some tree line locations. See this MIN report for a good example of the avalanche activity.
Conditions remain primed for human triggered avalanches, with the potential for some surprisingly large avalanches given how many persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
25-40 cm of storm snow fell from Sunday through to Tuesday and temperatures spiked to -2 at tree line in the south of the region (and +2 near Barkerville) on Monday afternoon. The new snow sits on a complex snowpack and there are three active weak layers we are monitoring:
1) Down about 40-80 cm is a crust and/or surface hoar layer buried mid-January. The surface hoar is up to 10 mm in size, found at all elevation bands and very reactive on north east aspects between 1900-2600m.
2) Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is found 50 to 100 cm below the surface.
3) Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 100 to 150 cm deep. It has been most problematic at and below tree line.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -9.
Thursday: Scattered flurries (5-10cm possible). Light to moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -8.
Friday: Snow (10-20 cm). Moderate southerly winds. Alpine temperature -8.
More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
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Warming temperatures put heavier snow on top of lighter dry snow - a recipe for an unstable snowpack. A storm slab could step down to a deeper weak layer, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.