Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
New snow and warming are influencing a complex snowpack: touchy storm and wind slabs sit above three weak layers that are reactive to human triggers at all elevations. Perform cautious route-finding without overhead exposure as the snowpack adjusts.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.
- Be very cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain, wind slabs may be deep and touchy.
- Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequence of a small avalanche could be serious.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Three weak layers are lurking in our snowpack, which have produced very large avalanches. Use extreme caution in openings below treeline (such as cutblocks) and sheltered areas in the alpine and treeline, where weak layers may be preserved.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be very cautious below treeline in open areas where surface hoar may be preserved.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Good day to make conservative terrain choices and watch for clues of instability.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, there was evidence of a widespread natural storm slab cycle with very large avalanches being released (up to size 3.5). This occurred on all aspects, at all elevations, with depths of 40 to 100 cm, and generally occurring on the mid-January weak layer but sometimes on the mid-December layer. Also, a large (size 2.5) persistent slab avalanche was triggered by a skier at treeline, which stepped down to the mid-December weak layer. The slab was 65 cm deep, 30 to 35 degree incline, on a northerly aspect.
These types of avalanches are a continuing trend, showing that our snowpack is capable of producing very large, destructive avalanches even on relatively shallow terrain. Expect similar avalanches to release at all elevation bands where these buried weak layers are preserved.
Snowpack Summary
The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring.
30-60 cm of storm snow sits on a crust and/or surface hoar layer (mid-January). The crust is reportedly widespread; high elevation north is likely one of the few crust-free zones. The mid-January surface hoar is up to 10 mm and reported at all elevation bands. The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.
Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is 30 to 70 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and sun crust on steep solar aspects and found at all elevation bands. Snowpack tests show sudden fracture characters with easy to moderate loads and high propagation potential, as well as whumpfs and cracking. Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 40 to 100 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line.
A rain crust buried in November is 100 to 150 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level near valley bottom.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, moderate to strong southerly winds, alpine temperature near -6 C, freezing level near 1100 m.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, moderate to strong southerly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy, light southerly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
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Up to 60 cm of recent snow has formed a slab that sits on weak, feathery surface hoar and/or a crust. Expect the slab to be deep and touchy in lee features due to strong south winds. The slab will also be touchy below treeline with a warming trend.