Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
New snow is on the way which is GREAT, but two buried weak layers in our snowpack remain capable of producing large human triggered avalanches. The message may be getting repetitive, but conservative terrain selection remains a must.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Conservative terrain selection remains prudent in this time of change.
- Numerous large avalanches have run on these layers in well supported, treed terrain.
- Caution with open slopes and convex rolls below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A few cm of snow Tuesday night and then a few more cm late Wednesday will rest on a potpourri of old surfaces including crust and feathery surface hoar. Storm slabs should be small Wednesday, but by Thursday they could pack more of a punch.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Sluffs will be easy to trigger in steep terrain that is sheltered from the wind
- Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface, touchy slabs may form quickly.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday warm temperatures and direct solar induced natural persistent slab avalanches to size 3.0 on solar aspects between 1600 and 2600 m. Loose wet avalanches were reported from all aspects to size 2.0.
On Sunday loose avalanches were reported from all aspects to size 1.0. On Southwest, south and southeast facing terrain between 1500 m and 2700 m, loose wet avalanches to size 2.5 and persistent slab avalanches to size 2.0 were reported to have failed naturally. A small wind slab was human triggered on a north facing feature just below ridge crest.
On Saturday natural avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported on northeast facing features between 1200 m and 1500 m. One small skier triggered avalanche was remotely triggered on a moderately inclined northeast facing alpine feature.
Snowpack Summary
Spotty freezing rain Tuesday may have left a slight "glaze" on the surface which adds to the crust that is being widely reported from many locations, high elevation north is likely one of the few crust-free zones. Fresh surface hoar up to 10 mm in size has been reported to ridgetop . We can probably expect a touchy storm slab to form on this interface as storm totals exceed 10 cm.
There are two significant and active Persistent Weak Layers (PWL) that we are monitoring.
The first PWL is known as the early January interface, it is 20 to 60 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is present at all elevation bands. Recent snowpack tests have shown easy to moderate planar results at this interface.
The second PWL is the mid-December facet/surface hoar/crust combination that is now buried 50 to 80 cm deep and is most problematic at and below treeline. This interface is not thought to be present in the alpine. This interface has shown sudden collapse in recent snowpack tests with easy to moderate loads.
The November rain crust down 70 to 100 cm is thought to have gone dormant for the time being.
Weather Forecast
On Wednesday morning a strong winter storm will arrive on the BC coast. Rather warm air and precipitation is expected to spread into the interior Wednesday afternoon resulting in snowfall through Thursday evening. The freezing level should fall back towards valley bottom Thursday night. Friday and Saturday look cool and calm with another system set to move into the interior on Sunday.
WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1200 m, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible in the afternoon, 2 to 8 cm possible Wednesday night.
THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1500 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible.
FRIDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning at valley bottom rising to around 1400 m in the afternoon, light to moderate southwest wind, no snow expected.
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As new snow begins to fall we can't forget about the persistent weak layers lurking in our snowpack that remain capable of producing large avalanches. Keep the terrain choices reigned in as the snowpack adjusts to the new load.