Avalanche Forecast
Cariboos
A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect in this region.
Rapidly warming temperatures Sunday may initiate natural avalanche activity and further increase the likelihood of large human triggered avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- The recent snow sits on a persistent weak layer and will require more time than usual to stabilize.
- If triggered, the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Avoid wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A volatile buried weak layer is becoming increasingly reactive. This layer has produced numerous large destructive avalanches and is especially concerning in the southern Cariboos.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Numerous large avalanches have run on this layer in well supported, treed terrain.
- Conservative terrain selection is critical at this time.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from the past couple of days include several Size 1-1.5 persistent slab releases that were triggered remotely (from a distance). With slab depths of 30-100 cm, both the January 5 and December 15 surface hoar layers were noted as failure planes. 'Step down' type releases were also observed. These reports all came from the south of the region.
Considerably more avalanche activity has been reported from the adjacent North Columbias, where numerous persistent slabs and storm slabs have recently been observed running naturally and with remote triggers. Sizes have ranged from small to very large (Size 1-3) with slab depths from 30-100 cm. This activity has been observed on all aspects and elevation ranges, although the deeper releases running on the December 15 surface hoar have been focused at treeline and below.
Conditions in the south of the Cariboo region are quite similar to those in the North Columbias at the moment, so it is advised to consider activity in this neighbouring region as indicative of the potential that exists in the Cariboos.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 50 cm of new snow has fallen over the last week. This snow sits on surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and the deepest accumulations exist in the south of the region. Shifting winds since the storm have redistributed loose snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects around exposed terrain features.
As the new snow continues to consolidate, it is forming a dangerous slab above several persistent weak layers that exist in the snowpack.
The first of these is the early January surface hoar which is down 20 to 50 cm below the surface. Recent snowpack tests and avalanche activity show high reactivity at this layer.
Next is the December 15 surface hoar which is now buried 50 to 80 cm deep. Reactivity at this layer has been gradually increasing and is most apparent at treeline and below. Both of these layers are deeper, more reactive and present greater danger in the south of the region.
Deeper in the snowpack at depths of about 70 to 100 cm, a rain crust from November has shown less reactivity in recent snowpack tests. It is considered dormant but could be triggered in thin spots around variable snowpack areas in the alpine.
Weather Forecast
A strengthening ridge is pushing warmer and warmer air into BC's Interior and the amplitude of the wave is quite dramatic. The result is something that we're becoming all too familiar with this season, inversion. Cold air in the valleys and warm temperatures in the alpine are expected through at least Tuesday. An unruly low-pressure system approaching the coast Wednesday should shake up the snow globe once again
SUNDAY: A few clouds, freezing level at valley bottom with above freezing temperatures between 1500 m and 3500 m, light variable wind, no snow expected.
MONDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level at valley bottom with above freezing temperatures between 1500 m and 3500 m, light to moderate south/southeast wind, no snow expected.
TUESDAY: Increasing cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom with above freezing temperatures between 1500 m and 2500 m, strong south wind, no snow expected.
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Recent snowfall in the south of the region has formed storm slabs over a touchy weak layer. Storm slab releases have been observed 'stepping down' to produce large avalanches. Wind slabs at higher elevations are a greater concern in the north.