Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Jan 2, 2018 - 5:04 PM

Valid until

Jan 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jfloyer

Watch for warming in alpine areas.

Regular season
Tuesday - January 2, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - January 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - January 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Loose dry avalanches may affect you on steep terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent shifting winds have been redistributing loose snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are of a few wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 and loose dry avalanches running in steep terrain. The character of avalanches is expected to change over the next few days, with slab avalanches becoming more likely as the upper snowpack starts to settle with warm temperatures. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm of low density new snow has buried a recently formed layer of feathery surface hoar and/or sugary facets. A layer buried mid-December that consists of surface hoar, sun crust and/or sugary facets is now down approximately 30-50cm. This layer is most prevalent in sheltered locations at treeline and below. Until recently, the snow above both of these weak layers has been soft and unconsolidated. Forecast warmer temperatures are expected to make the upper snow more dense, which could increase the likelihood of triggering on these layers. A crust which was formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 70-100cm at treeline elevations.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cold air in the valleys, warmer air up high. An above freezinf level is expected from 2000-2500m. Some valley cloud is possible, clear at upper elevations. Light variable winds.

Thursday: Pretty much a repeat of Wednesday, with more cloud developing in the afternoon and some moderate southwesterly winds.

Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Inversions conditions may persist in some parts above 1800m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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