Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Dec 25, 2017 - 4:05 PM

Valid until

Dec 26, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Keep seeking out soft, unconsolidated snow. Slab formation remains the critical factor for avalanche danger under present conditions. Plan on more conservative terrain selection at mid-elevations.

Regular season
Monday - December 25, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer of surface hoar buried 20-40 cm deep has potential to produce large avalanches where the overlying snow has settled into a cohesive slab. The greatest caution is needed around steeper, sheltered slopes at treeline and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of slab formation at lower elevations, such as whumphing or shooting cracks.
  • Buried surface hoar is more likely to be preserved in sheltered openings at and below tree line.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Shifting winds have redistributed last week's storm snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Northwest winds were the most recent. Exercise extra caution at lower elevations where winds may have formed a slab over a touchy surface hoar layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be aware of recent variable wind loading patterns.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the region. In addition to lingering wind slabs at higher elevations, persistent slab avalanche danger can be expected to persist in areas where the last week's storm snow consolidates into a slab above the December 15 interface.

Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Last week's stormy weather brought 20-40cm of new snow to the region. Shifting winds (most recently from the northwest) have redistributed this storm snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects at higher elevations while cold temperatures have inhibited slab formation in wind-sheltered areas. The storm snow lies over a variety of old surfaces, including large surface hoar (weak, feather-like crystals), crusts formed by sun or wind, and sugary facets. The bond at this old snow interface is of critical importance in areas where the overlying snow has consolidated into a slab. The most concerning areas areas are those that saw pronounced surface hoar development in advance of the storm, such as sheltered areas at and below tree line.

A crust which was formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 70-100cm at tree line elevations. Recent observations show this crust gradually breaking down, making it a less well-defined failure plane for avalanching.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -15.

Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace to 3 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -17.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace to 3 cm of new snow. Light northwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -20.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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