Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Dec 5, 2017 - 4:23 PM

Valid until

Dec 6, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Soaring alpine temperatures will test the snowpack this week. Be extra cautious around sun exposed slopes.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 5, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 6, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - December 7, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs will become touchy as the snow warms up, especially on steep south-facing slopes. Also watch for wind-loaded slopes on ridges and gullies.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Not much is known about buried crusts lurking in the snowpack, but dramatic warming could potentially awaken deep weaknesses in the snowpack. Uncertainty about these layers warrants conservative terrain selection.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep slopes on warm or sunny days.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. On the weekend, small loose dry avalanches were reported in steep terrain around Valemount and Blue River, but no human-triggered avalanches were reported. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is about to experience a big change with a week of warm sunny weather ahead. Widespread melting is expected, with the most intense warming on steep south-facing slopes. Warming could potentially impact deeper layers including a combination of crusts that formed during rain events in November. Little is known about the depth, distribution, or reactivity of these crusts. Wind slabs formed at higher elevations over the past week and will likely continue to be reactive. Snow depths decrease rapidly below treeline, where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with valley cloud in the morning, light northwest wind, inversion forming with alpine temperatures possibly reaching above 0 C.

THURSDAY: Sunny with valley cloud, light wind, inversion with freezing level up to 3000 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny with valley cloud, light wind, inversion with freezing level up to 2700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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