Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Nov 27, 2017 - 5:16 PM

Valid until

Nov 28, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

New snow and southerly winds will be driving avalanche danger on Tuesday. Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.

Regular season
Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - November 29, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Tuesday, especially where the new snow sits on a temperature crust that formed on Sunday into Monday.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or recent natural avalanches.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rapid loading by rain or snow will increase the likelihood of avalanches occurring on this layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading by rain, snow, or wind.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in this region. A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Tuesday, especially where new snow may be falling on a crust formed November 27th.

We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures on Sunday may have resulted in a crust (November 27th crust) up to treeline elevations, with up to 10cm of snow on top of this crust. At higher elevations, southerly winds (gusting strong at times) likely re-distributed the new snow, forming wind slabs on lee features, such as below ridgetops and in gullies.

Lower down in the snowpack,10-25 cm snow from last weekend sits on the previous warm temperature crust from November 23rd. We haven't had much information on how well the snow is bonding to this crust.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 200+cm in the alpine, 100-160cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

A major feature in the snowpack is a crust which was formed around November 11th and can be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

The next system arrives on Tuesday with modest accumulations of snow and more seasonal temperatures.

TUESDAY: Snow (5-15cm) during the day with another 5-10cm possible overnight. Moderate southerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1000 m. Alpine temperatures near -5 Celsius.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing throughout the day. Moderate westerly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1100 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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